Back-to-back defeats for the Atlanta Falcons have made things uncomfortably tight atop the NFC South coming out of their much needed bye week, which has given them a chance to regroup and recalibrate.
The Birds went into that bye coming off of their worst game of the season, falling flat on their face in Denver. With the Buccaneers’ triumph over the Giants last weekend, just one game separates the top teams at the summit of the NFC South. Atlanta does own the tiebreaker. as well.
The Falcons will have the biggest possible logistical advantage against the 7-4 Chargers, who not only played last Monday but also are traveling cross country from California to Georgia for this one.
Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Chargers in Week 13, as well as looking at the scenario if they lose.
If the Falcons win
It would be a massive morale booster, ending their skid and beating just their second opponent this season which currently has a winning record. They would also end their historic losing streak against against the Chargers, which is currently at three games.
Looking at the schedule from a macro perspective, the Buccaneers will be favored in five of their last six games. If they do indeed go 5-1 down the stretch, Atlanta would need to go at least 4-2 to win the division. Assuming wins (I know, very dangerous to do) against the Giants, Raiders and Panthers, the Falcons would need to win at least one of their other three games.
Those three opponents are the Chargers, Vikings, and Commanders. Given the logistics and the fact that they are coming off of a bye week, this game against Los Angeles is likely the best chance at a victory when looking at that triumvirate. Win this one, and the Falcons should be fine if they “beat the teams they’re supposed to beat” down the stretch, unless Tampa simply wins out.
From an entirely NFC perspective, Atlanta does have a chance to move back into third place in the conference with victory and a Seahawks defeat against the Jets. If Tampa does end up chasing them down in the division, stacking these victories will be crucial in at least ensuring their spot in the post season as a Wildcard representative.
If the Falcons lose
Their two game losing streak, which is already a season high, will move to three games, with a game at the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings on tap next weekend. This would be a recipe for a disastrous five-week stretch which legitimately carries with it the potential to cost Atlanta the division and their season.
The Buccaneers would tie the Birds at the top of the South with a victory against the last place Panthers this weekend, although the Falcons would still maintain their lead by way of tiebreaker. Tampa would be poised to regain that lead with another presumably easy matchup next weekend against the Raiders, while Atlanta has its travel to Minnesota.
The algorithm at playoffstatus.com currently gives the Falcons a 78% chance of making the playoffs. Defeat combined with a Bucs victory would see that number fall to 64%. Things could and should have been a lot more comfortable right now, but that unexpected loss to the Saints has thrown a wrench in things.
