The Big 12 Championship game has yet to be decided entering the final week of the regular season. However, Colorado‘s win against Oklahoma State on Friday afternoon has helped paint a clearer picture heading into the bulk of action on Saturday.
As it stands, four teams have two losses in conference play — the Buffaloes, Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU. Five teams — Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia — have three losses in Big 12 play a piece.
Losses from the Sun Devils, Cyclones and Cougars could make the conference title game even more interesting as Saturday plays itself out. For now, here are the most likely scenarios for the Big 12 title game before the day’s games are kicked off, courtesy of Bill Bender of The Sporting News.
Colorado (9-3, 7-2 Big 12)
The Buffaloes have three paths to the conference title game after Friday’s win. The most direct path — having Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU all lose. Colorado would be the clear top team in the conference record-wise if this becomes the case.
The second scenario may be a bit easier to come by, as Colorado would be in the championship game if two of those three teams lost. The two remaining two-loss teams would meet in the Big 12 title game.
If Arizona State and Iowa State win, BYU would need to lose while Texas Tech beats West Virginia. Baylor must also beat Kansas State and Cincinnati beats TCU. That would create a Big 12 Championship game between Colorado and Iowa State.
The Sun Devils will clinch its championship game spot if they win on Saturday and Iowa State and BYU lose. They also get into the game if there is a four-way tie between Colorado, ASU, Iowa State and BYU.
However, if Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State all win and BYU loses and Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor would have to beat Kansas State while Cincinnati beats TCU. If all of that happens, it will be Colorado vs. Iowa State in the championship game, leaving Arizona State out of the championship.
If all of that happens, but West Virginia beats Texas Tech, it would instead be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
Just like Arizona State, if Iowa State wins on Saturday and the Sun Devils and Cougars lose, it would be Colorado vs. Iowa State in the conference championship game. However, if Iowa State, BYU and Colorado win and Arizona State loses, it will be Iowa State vs. BYU in the championship game.
If Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State all win this week, Texas Tech would need to beat West Virginia and Baylor beats Kansas State and Cincinnati beats TCU — Colorado vs. Iowa State would be the championship game.
The WVU-Texas Tech game once again will be a major factor in the race in this scenario as well, as if the Mountaineers beat the Red Raiders it would shake up the title game’s matchup to Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
BYU (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)
Iowa State and Arizona State losing pushes BYU into the conference title game against Colorado, which is its easiest path.
If BYU and Arizona State win and Iowa State loses, then it will be Arizona State vs. BYU in the Big 12 Championship game.
What if Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU all lose?
If Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU all lose, it opens the door for one of the five three-loss teams — which would expand to eight in this secnario — to face Colorado in the conference championship game.
The game would most likely feature Colorado vs. Kansas State or Baylor, depending on how the rest of the Big 12 slate comes together across Saturday. That includes TCU vs. Cincinnati, Kansas vs. Baylor, Utah vs. UCF and WVU vs. Texas Tech.
