The Big 12 is pure chaos right now. If this were NFL RedZone, we’d be smack in the middle of the Big 12 Witching Hour. Colorado handled their business on Friday and now Arizona State is in. Three teams are vying for one last spot in the title game.
Here’s how the odds stack up heading into a high-stakes Week 14.
Big 12 Championship Game Odds
Now well into Week 14, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results following Colorado and Arizona State’s wins in Week 14 and simulated the rest of the action in Week 14 across the conference.
On those 10,000 times, we get our winning probabilities for the remaining teams vying for their spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
Big 12 Championship Game Winning Probability
- Arizona State 45.11%
- Colorado 22.60%
- BYU 21.40%
- Iowa State 10.89%
So here’s what we’re looking at for the Big 12 Championship: three teams vying to play Arizona State in the title game. Colorado has handled their business, so below, is a road map for each of the remaining three teams.
Big 12 Tiebreaking Scenarios
We opened the weekend with this scenario: If all four teams win in Week 14, they’d finish the season tied with two conference losses each. So, here’s how the tiebreakers would shape up:
The Big 12’s tiebreaking rules for multi-team ties make it clear: if one team wins a tiebreaker, the rest of the tied teams go back to square one in the tiebreaking process. With that in mind, here’s the breakdown:
First up, the records of the four teams would be compared based on winning percentage in games played against each other. If all teams haven’t played one another but one team beat all the others they did face, that team would punch their ticket to the championship game.
- BYU: Lost to Arizona State, did not play Iowa State or Colorado
- Colorado: Did not play BYU, Arizona State, or Iowa State
- Arizona State: Beat BYU, did not play Colorado or Iowa State
- Iowa State: Did not play BYU, Arizona State, or Colorado
The head-to-head criteria fail to identify a clear winner in this scenario. The process then moves to the next tiebreaker: comparing records based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.
The shared conference opponents for these four teams are Kansas State, UCF, Utah, and Kansas.
BYU’s opponents:
Kansas State (W)
Baylor (W)
Arizona (W)
Oklahoma State (W)
UCF (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas (L)
Arizona State (L)
Houston (W *in this scenario)
BYU’s common opponent winning percentage: 3-1
Colorado’s opponents:
Baylor (W)
UCF (W)
Kansas State (L)
Arizona (W)
Cincinnati (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas (L)
Oklahoma State (W *in this scenario)
Colorado’s common opponent winning percentage: 2-2
Arizona State’s opponents:
Texas Tech (L)
Kansas (W)
Utah (W)
Cincinnati (L)
Oklahoma State (W)
UCF (W)
Kansas State (W)
BYU (W)
Arizona (W *in this scenario)
Arizona State’s common opponent winning percentage: 4-0
Iowa State’s opponents:
Houston (W)
Baylor (W)
West Virginia (W)
UCF (W)
Texas Tech (L)
Kansas (L)
Cincinnati (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas State (W *in this scenario)
Iowa State’s common opponent winning percentage: 3-1
Arizona State would be the first to clinch in this scenario if all four teams win in Week 14, thanks to their wins against all four common Big 12 opponents. But that changes if BYU loses to Houston, triggering a similar shakeup in the tiebreaking process.
If Arizona State, Iowa State, and Colorado end up tied at the top, common opponents become the deciding factor. Those three teams have all faced UCF, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Utah, and Kansas.
Colorado’s record: 3-2
Iowa State’s record: 4-1
Arizona State’s record: 4-1
This would send Iowa State and Arizona State to the championship game.
Now, circling back to the four-team tie scenario:
The tiebreakers would reset, bringing Colorado, BYU, and Iowa State back into the mix. At this stage, the common opponents’ conference records come into play. Iowa State and BYU both hold a 3-1 record against these opponents, while Colorado sits at 2-2.
The process then moves to the next tiebreaker: head-to-head records against the highest-ranked common opponent, working down the list from there. Here’s how those opponents stack up:
- Kansas State (Iowa State would have beaten in this scenario; BYU won, Colorado lost)
- Kansas (all three lost to Kansas)
- UCF (all three won against UCF)
- Utah (all three would have won against Utah in this scenario)
In this scenario, Colorado would be eliminated via the loss to Kansas State with BYU and Iowa State moving on back to the top of the tiebreakers.
The last tiebreaker to attend to would be the record of all conference opponents among tied teams.
BYU’s opponents:
Kansas State 5-3
Baylor 5-3
Arizona 2-6
Oklahoma State 0-8
UCF 2-6
Utah 1-7
Kansas 4-4
Arizona State 6-2
Houston 3-5
BYU’s opponent Big 12 winning percentage: 28-44
Colorado’s opponents:
Baylor 5-3
UCF 2-6
Kansas State 5-3
Arizona 2-6
Cincinnati 3-5
Texas Tech 5-3
Utah 1-7
Kansas 4-4
Oklahoma State 0-8
Colorado’s opponent Big 12 winning percentage: 27-45
Iowa State’s opponents:
Houston 3-5
Baylor 5-3
West Virginia 5-3
UCF 2-6
Texas Tech 5-3
Kansas 4-4
Cincinnati 3-5
Utah 1-7
Kansas State 5-3
Iowa State’s opponent Big 12 winning percentage: 31-39
Iowa State is in. After factoring in the Week 13 results, neither BYU nor Colorado can catch Iowa State in this tiebreaking scenario, no matter what happens in Week 14.
That means if Iowa State beats Kansas State, they’re locked into the Big 12 Championship Game—period.
So, there you have it. If all four teams currently tied win in Week 14, the Big 12 Championship Game will be Iowa State vs. Arizona State, with Arizona State claiming ‘home-team status’ as the first-place team.
The one scenario not played out above is if BYU were to lose to Houston, now that Iowa State has won against Kansas State. Reportedly, Colorado is still alive and would play in the Big 12 Championship Game against Arizona State if BYU were to lose to Houston.
In reality, however, according to the Big 12’s own tiebreaking scenarios, I cannot find a map for the Buffaloes to beat Iowa State in the tiebreaking procedures.
- Head to head — they didn’t play
- Win percentage against all common conference opponents among tied teams — Colorado has a 3-2 record against common opponents with Iowa State and Arizona State
It just doesn’t add up.
Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Oklahoma State — done
- Now need BYU to lose
Colorado’s winning probability the remaining way:
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 50.8%
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
- Defeat Houston
- An Iowa State loss
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Cougars need just one slip-up from Iowa State in Week 14 to lock in their spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. With a lose, their hopes are dashed.
- vs. Houston: 87.8%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 49.4%
Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Arizona State has punched their ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game.
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They will now hope to win the Big 12 Championship and punch their ticket to the College Football Playoffs by winning the conference.
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Colorado: 49.2%
Iowa State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
The Cyclones are in with a win as they would own the tiebreakers over both BYU and Colorado. But if they lose, much like all the other teams above them here, they’re not out of it.
They would now be eliminated with a loss.
- vs. Kansas State: 57.4%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 42.6%
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