Depending on the Raiders’ quarterback situation on Friday, my Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction is the Raiders Spread (+13.5, -110).
Las Vegas’ offense did well to generate quality scoring looks at home against the Chiefs. But I trust Aidan O’Connell a lot more in this spot than I do Desmond Ridder.
Ridder is 3-4 ATS as a dog in his career, but he’s never closed at +10 or higher. O’Connell is 5-3-1 ATS as a dog, including 3-1 when he’s listed at +7 or higher.
Included in that sample is a trip to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium last year. As an 11-point underdog, O’Connell and the Raiders won 20-14.
While a lot has changed since that trip last year, I hate the spot for Kansas City.
The defending Super Bowl champions have to travel back to play a divisional game on short rest. Plus, Patrick Mahomes is a disappointing 8-14 ATS as a favorite of -10.5 or higher.
There’s also a clear path to taking advantage of Kansas City’s defense that benefits Las Vegas.
The Chiefs rank 13th in pass defense DVOA and allow the most receiving yards to tight ends in the league, per ftnfantasy.com.
That sets up well for Raiders tight end Brock Bowers, the bright spot of the offense this year.
If the Raiders can exploit that matchup and force turnovers against Kansas City, I like their prospects of staying within two touchdowns.
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