For NFL teams, quarterback succession plans can be one of the toughest procedures to pull off. Just ask the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta surprised people around the league at the 2024 NFL Draft when it selected former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick one month after signing veteran QB Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal. The scrutinized decision was later defended by team management as a safeguard move to avoid quarterback purgatory.
The plan appeared to be that the 24-year-old Penix would study under Cousins before eventually taking over as QB1 down the road. But eight months later, with Cousins in year one of his contract and the team’s first playoff appearance in seven years still in reach, the Falcons already seem ready to move on. After Cousins underwhelmed on Monday night, the latest in a string of subpar performances, Atlanta announced it would bench the veteran in favor of Penix, who will make his first career start against the New York Giants this Sunday.
“You’re seeing the consequence of when carefully thought through plans go awry,” former NFL super-agent Leigh Steinberg said in a phone interview. “That must have been an excoriating decision for the coach and front office.”
The yank has suddenly destabilized the team’s quarterback situation while creating a potential costly transition for the Falcons, who are on the hook to pay Cousins $27.5 million next season guaranteed regardless of whether the 14 starts he’s made this season are it for him with the franchise. In the event the Falcons cut or trade him, his dead cap hit would still likely dent their roster-building flexibility through 2026.
“If you won’t play your franchise quarterback with heavily guaranteed money in a critical circumstance because you believe you have a better chance to win with (Penix), it’s like a hand grenade thrown in the middle of this well-thought out plan,” said Steinberg, who has represented a record eight No. 1 draft picks, including former Falcons star quarterback Steve Bartkowski.
The Green Bay Packers are arguably the league’s best at quarterback succession planning. For over 20 years, they were led at the position by current and future Pro Football Hall of Famers in Brett Favre (now retired) and Aaron Rodgers (now with the New York Jets). Packers starter Jordan Love, who replaced Rodgers last year after serving as the backup for three seasons, has been considered for Pro Bowl honors and continues to show promise. At least enough for the franchise to sign him to a four-year, $220 million deal (including a record $75 million signing bonus), making him one of the league’s highest-paid players.
Every NFL team aspires for that level of continuity and stability. It is difficult to execute. Cases like the Kansas City Chiefs selecting reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes in the first round in 2017 while still having then-veteran starter Alex Smith are rarer than gold. It is more common for general managers to snag a potential long-term starter in the draft and pray they’ll be ready when their number is called. Daniel Jones, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones and Mitchell Trubisky all failed to adequately replace their teams’ incumbents.
The Falcons’ opponent this week has had its own quarterback drama as it still tries to fill the shoes left by Eli Manning five years ago. The Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts are additional teams that could be eyeing a new franchise quarterback this upcoming draft in April.
Thus, the Falcons are only the latest team to exemplify why seamless quarterback succession plans are tough to successfully complete. Atlanta has had a gap since trading its all-time passing leader Matt Ryan in 2022. The offseason moves to pay Cousins more than anyone in this year’s free-agent class and select Penix despite other positional needs was perhaps an overcorrection. Now, the team is staring at a potential dead cap number of $65 million, which would be second all-time behind Russell Wilson, who left Denver earlier this year with a total dead cap value of $85 million, the largest in NFL history. If the Falcons release Cousins after June 1, though, they can be spread the hit over two years and absorb a $40 million cap charge next season instead.
While the Falcons have pushed the button on their succession plan earlier than expected, the lefty Penix could rise to the occasion despite limited preseason game reps. The decision to give guaranteed cash to a then-35-year-old Cousins coming off an Achilles injury can be forgiven if Penix can remind people why he was one of the most electric players in college football last year. He finished second in Heisman Trophy balloting while throwing for nearly 5,000 yards and leading the Huskies to the national championship game.
Cousins, who has more than $294 million in career earnings, has passed the torch with class, but it remains to be seen whether his understudy is ready for the lead role. It’s uncertain what expectations the team now has for Penix this season, but it’s clear that the Falcons’ QB strategy is in overdrive and represents the league-wide dilemma presented to teams that have handed out guaranteed money and later desire to unseat that player.
“This is a very dramatic move to make this late in the season in the midst trying to be a wild-card team,” Steinberg added. “It sends a clear signal that in a time of crisis they’re turning to a young quarterback.”
