A combination of an explosive start by the Michigan Wolverines and mixed results elsewhere in the conference has suddenly propelled Dusty May’s squad into (way-too-early) Big Ten title conversations. Considering the calendar has just flipped to December, this talk is overwhelmingly meaningless. However, being in the conversation at all is a massive turnaround for a Michigan team that struggled mightily last year.
Tuesday’s upset in Madison was Michigan’s best win of the season so far. The maize and blue now return home with a solid chance to start 2-0 in conference play. The Iowa Hawkeyes rank 50th in KenPom but have played a soft schedule, sitting in the 300s in SOS; their best win to date is arguably its buzzer-beater over Northwestern earlier this week. While Michigan is the favorite, especially in Ann Arbor, with all arrows pointing up.
Iowa Hawkeyes (7-1, 1-0) at Michigan Wolverines (7-1, 1-0)
Date & Time: Saturday, Dec. 7, 2 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Detroit, MI
TV/Streaming: FS1
Despite a 7-1 record, Iowa does not impress me. A win over Washington State in something called the Quad Cities Hoops Showdown is fine, but its only games against top-70 teams resulted in a loss to Utah State and a narrow win over Northwestern — that hardly screams “Tournament team.” One bright spot for Iowa has been Owen Freeman, who is averaging 17.3 points and 7.6 rebounds. Payton Sandfort, a longtime contributor, is still finding his rhythm this season, and his 103.2 ORtg points to this slower start.
Michigan is 2-3 against Iowa over the past three seasons, losing both games in Ann Arbor. Last year’s meeting at Crisler was close until Iowa pulled away late in a high-scoring affair. However, Michigan’s December trip to Iowa City saw the Wolverines explode for 90 points in one of their three conference wins. These matchups are usually entertaining, and this weekend should be no different.
One Big Question: How replicable was Tuesday?
It was not exactly a bold prediction, but highlighting Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf as the key against Wisconsin paid off in a big way. Michigan will not get 44 points from its bigs every game, but it is worth sticking with this strategy until opponents find a way to counter it. Iowa seems unlikely to be the team to do so, as the Hawkeyes rank 279th nationally in two-point defense and lack the size or athleticism to match up effectively inside.
May’s offense leaned heavily on two-big action in Madison, with 4-5 ball screens consistently yielding strong results. The Badgers had no answer for Wolf’s ball-handling, and Goldin was the beneficiary inside. Expect Michigan to continue emphasizing these two, particularly after a cold shooting night from three on Tuesday. While three-point defense can be statistically noisy, Iowa has been much better against threes than twos, all but writing the script for the Wolverines.
One Thing to Watch: Iowa Bullseyes
Iowa basketball remains the polar opposite of Iowa football, with an offense-first philosophy that often comes at the expense of defense. Its No. 42 ranking in offensive efficiency might not seem elite, but after seven consecutive seasons of top-20 offenses, Fran McCaffery has earned the benefit of the doubt. The Hawkeyes thrive in transition and love taking threes, making defensive discipline critical for Michigan.
One area where the Wolverines have really excelled is opposing assist rate (fourth-lowest nationally). This shows that the defense is locking down easy looks and forcing players to try to beat them off the dribble. Iowa does not want to do that and will try to hit its shooters and let them launch from deep, so how close this game is likely comes down to how well Michigan can prevent the ball from finding the open man, especially on the break.
A 2-0 start to Big Ten play sets this team up well for January and would put the Wolverines at 4-0 through this loaded six-game stretch (which continues against Arkansas at the Madison Square Garden next Tuesday). Expect a solid win on Saturday as Michigan is only starting to hit its stride.
