Alabama’s playoff chances seemed to get a lot better on Tuesday.
The Crimson Tide jumped Miami in the penultimate set of CFP rankings. Alabama (9-3) is at No. 11, a spot ahead of Miami (10-2) at No. 12. If the rankings don’t change before Sunday, Alabama would get the final at-large spot in the 12-team playoff over the Hurricanes.
Ohio State fell to No. 6 after losing at home to Michigan in Week 14. Oregon remained at No. 1 followed by Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia. The Bulldogs are the highest-ranked two-loss team.
First-round byes
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
The Broncos are five spots ahead of the Big 12’s highest-ranked team in Arizona State. If Boise State beats No. 20 UNLV on Friday night, it would probably stay ahead of the Big 12 champion Sun Devils or No. 16 Iowa State for the final first-round bye.
Boise State could even move up to No. 3 if Clemson beats SMU for the ACC title on Saturday. The Tigers are ranked behind the two Big 12 schools at No. 17.
First-round matchups
No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State
No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
These matchups are likely to change before Sunday’s final rankings. Penn State plays Oregon for the Big Ten title while Georgia plays Texas for the SEC title. Either those two teams provisionally hosting first-round games will get byes, or their seeds could be adjusted accordingly.
Both Notre Dame and Ohio State appear to be hosting first-round games no matter what happens on championship weekend. Both teams aren’t playing on Saturday.
Neither are Alabama and Miami. That’s why it looks like the Crimson Tide have an advantage over the Hurricanes for what could be the final spot in the playoff field.
That spot isn’t guaranteed by any means. If Clemson beats SMU in the ACC title game, will the committee drop the Mustangs below either or both teams? If SMU stays ahead of both Alabama and Miami in that scenario, it’s still in the playoff.
Alabama vs. Miami
Alabama’s jump is the most significant move the committee has made all season. It’s generally been risk-averse with its rankings and has tiered teams by their win-loss records. A week ago, Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina went back-to-back-to-back in the rankings as the Gamecocks lost to both teams.
Now Miami has been slotted ahead of Ole Miss and South Carolina but not Alabama. Why?
Perhaps it has to do with the Hurricanes’ leaky defense. Miami gave up a 21-0 first-half lead in its loss to Syracuse in Week 14. Miami has needed to escape some close games this season. While Cam Ward and the Miami offense have been awesome, they haven’t been a complete team.
Alabama hasn’t been dominant either. But CFP committee chair Warde Manuel said Tuesday night that Alabama’s strength of schedule was a reason for the move.
“Alabama is 3-1 against current top 25 teams, Miami is 0-1,” Manuel said.
That one Miami loss came to Syracuse. Alabama’s wins are over Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri. Its loss came to Tennessee.
However, Alabama’s other two losses came to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. The latter loss happened in Week 13 and was especially excruciating. Oklahoma finished the season at 6-6 and beat Alabama 24-3. Miami’s other loss is to a Georgia Tech team that took Georgia to eight overtimes on Black Friday.
Fair or not, Alabama’s leap of Miami is going to create a weeklong dialogue for claims of SEC bias and will surely infuriate the ACC. Just look at what the conference tweeted hours before the rankings show.
And then look at what Miami athletic director Dan Radakovich posted after the big reveal.
Really ?? ….what put Bama over the top of Miami for the last spot in is that Miami went 1-2 in their last 3 games (by an average of 4.5 pts, to a ranked Syracuse and GT team that just took UGA to 8OT). Bama went 2-1 (to 5-7 Auburn, destroyed by OU, and beat FCS Mercer)
— Dan Radakovich (@DanRadakovich) December 4, 2024
It’s clear right now that the committee doesn’t think Miami has earned it. Will that change before Sunday? It seems unlikely, but we can’t totally rule it out.
1. Oregon (12-0)
2. Texas (11-1)
3. Penn State (11-1)
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
5. Georgia (10-2)
6. Ohio State (10-2)
7. Tennessee (10-2)
8. SMU (11-1)
9. Indiana (11-1)
10. Boise State (11-1)
11. Alabama (9-3)
12. Miami (10-2)
13. Ole Miss (9-3)
14. South Carolina (9-3)
15. Arizona State (10-2)
16. Iowa State (10-2)
17. Clemson (9-3)
18. BYU (10-2)
19. Missouri (9-3)
20. UNLV (10-2)
21. Illinois (9-3)
22. Syracuse (9-3)
23. Colorado (9-3)
24. Army (10-1)
25. Memphis (10-2)
