Why Russell Wilson and Sam Darnold look better, plus Caleb Williams hope

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Good morning. Today, we’re talking QB improvement, something that has long eluded the Bears (but perhaps not for much longer, with Thomas Brown as OC, as Kevin Fishbain explains here).

• Russell Wilson and Sam Darnold
• What changed for Bo Nix
• Poll results

QB Turnarounds: Improved, or just winning?

The Athletic’s Jeff Howe is the master of quarterback rankings. With Russell Wilson and Sam Darnold ending 2023 on the bench, we all agreed with Jeff’s Week 1 stock report, which ranked both veterans among the league’s worst QBs.

Along came a 2024 revival. After four starts, Darnold was 4-0 and 13th in Jeff’s rankings. He’s now 18th, one spot behind Wilson, who is a similar 4-0 across his first four starts.

The parallels continue. Both are backed by top-10 defenses that ease the pressure on the offense. And both are working with offensive coordinators who maximize strengths.

They also each have a just-throw-it-up No. 1 receiver. Justin Jefferson in Minnesota and George Pickens in Pittsburgh respectively rank second and fourth in receiving yards this season. There’s room for error.

Wilson and Darnold are also on one-year contracts, suggesting they’ll headline the 2025 free agent quarterback class.

The obvious question lingers: Are Wilson and Darnold better quarterbacks than they had been lately, or just in better situations? Let’s quickly look at both, comparing this season with their two most recent previous years in which they started 10-plus games.

2024 Russell Wilson

By most objective measures, the 35-year-old is a similar player to 2023 (when he wasn’t bad in Denver!). His QBR, passer rating, completion percentage and adjusted net yards per pass attempt all resemble his time there.

The tape shows Pittsburgh’s run-first, play-action offense looks similar to Wilson’s early years in Seattle and is perfectly suited to his strengths, including his patented moonball.

But it’s not all positive. In his four starts, the Steelers have produced a touchdown on only 38.9 percent of their red zone opportunities. As Mike DeFabo notes in his look into why Pittsburgh is struggling there, Wilson has completed 68 percent of his passes outside the red zone, but that figure drops to 29.2 percent inside the 20.

(Perhaps that’s where Justin Fields comes in? We’ll see tonight, when the Steelers visit the Browns at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.)

Even if Wilson fails to improve near the goal line, in his 13th season, he is an effective starter. That’s probably it, but it’s all Pittsburgh’s defense (and kicker) need. As Jeff wrote, “They’re putting him in good situations and not asking him to play beyond his means, which is exactly how it should be.”

2024 Sam Darnold

This isn’t a case where the numbers fail to align with what Darnold looks like in action. You’d be hard pressed to find any stretch from 2018 to 2022 when he looked this confident throwing the football.

But after a stretch that evoked years past — five interceptions in Weeks 9 and 10 — his penchant for turnovers (10 INTs, fourth-most) remains a glaring flaw. He’s become a better version of Sam Darnold, which is good for a league-average QBR (and an 8-2 record, thanks to an elite supporting cast).

It’s reasonable to assume Darnold’s arm talent and athleticism, along with his 2024 team’s win-loss record, will intrigue some of the 12 teams with potential QB openings in 2025. Many will be deciding between Darnold, Wilson and prospects like Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward. But those teams should remember: Even a QB with Wilson’s resume still needs the right surroundings.

What Dianna’s Hearing: Bears put Caleb Williams back on the right track

Bears fans, for once, there is good news: The change at offensive coordinator, with Thomas Brown replacing Shane Waldron, has given this team a boost.

In Brown’s first game as a play-caller, last weekend’s nail-biter loss to Green Bay, Caleb Williams completed 74 percent of his passes, a more than 20 percentage point increase over his three previous games.

One of the most significant changes has been improved communication during the game, particularly when it comes to the speed at which plays are called. The 4-6 Bears haven’t resolved all their issues, but believe they are better on offense. As Williams put it: “We’re going to have that mindset to go out there and kick some tail.”

Chicago will need that mindset, with the 8-2 Vikings on Sunday and 9-1 Lions days later on Thanksgiving.

🎧 ICYMI from the “Scoop City” podcast: Are the Giants trying to tank?

Bo Nix’s Emergence: What’s different in Denver?

When Sean Payton announced his Week 1 starter, we learned that Bo Nix was set to become the first rookie QB to start for the Broncos since John Elway. It only added to the expectations for this year’s No. 12 pick, but he’s exceeded them all.

As we enter Week 12, Nix has played an equal amount of games as Elway — a first overall pick — did in his rookie year (11), giving us a level playing field to compare the two. (Of course, we must factor in the differing play style in 1983 and the fact that Elway often split games with Steve DeBerg.) A blind sample of the stats would suggest we’re looking at one future superstar and one struggling rookie:

Obviously, that goes to show: A lot can and will change. Still, great start.

Success wasn’t immediate for Nix, however. His career started 0-2, with zero touchdowns, four interceptions and a completion rate in the 50s.

But everything has changed since the season’s first four games, which Payton referred to as “a race to improve.” Nick Kosmider provides perspective on Nix after the the 24-year-old’s best performance yet (307 yards and four touchdowns on Sunday against Atlanta):

“Since the start of October, a span of seven games, Nix is completing 69 percent of his passes. He has thrown 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions — and he’s rushed for two more scores. He has posted a 106.3 passer rating. The only quarterbacks in the same statistical ballpark during that span: Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow.”

Nick also previously explained the improvements he’s seen from Nix. Here’s one that stood out:

“Nix has taken a big leap as an intermediate passer. Since Week 5, he is completing passes between 5 and 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage at a mark that is top-10 in the NFL. His completion rate on those throws through the first four games of the season was 37.5 percent, which ranked last out of 33 qualified passers.”

Sean Payton has played a crucial role, scheming open receivers to make life easier for Nix. His recent work with Marvin Mims is a prime example of what has Nix on track to become the best rookie quarterback in Broncos history. After that, a spot next to Elway would more than suffice.

Poll Results: The state of star corners

Yesterday, we looked at the seeming decline of the superstar cornerback, and I asked you if we will see a return of the star corner.

According to nearly 40 percent of votes, “they never left,” with Jalen Ramsey and Pat Surtain II holding it down in today’s game. The yes/no votes were split an equal 24 percent each, signaling that the status quo is the expectation moving forward.

Around the NFL

Welcome to HarBowl Week. Vic Tafur picks all the weekend’s games, including the John vs. Jim brothers brawl.

It’s somehow in the game. Saquon Barkley’s backward hurdle is now in Madden. Seems annoying.

Benching the GOAT? The Ravens don’t plan to sit the struggling Justin Tucker.

Yesterday’s most-clicked: Why Jets GM Joe Douglas never stood a chance.

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(Photo: Justin K. Aller and Andy Lyons / Getty Images)