Gov. Tim Walz’s wild ride to the stratosphere of American politics came crashing to earth Tuesday, when he and his running mate Vice President Kamala Harris lost the presidential race to Donald Trump.
Walz returns to Minnesota exhausted and scraped up by the brutal scrutiny of a national political campaign — and likely to hear second guessing of sour Democrats, who say Harris should have picked Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
DFL Party Chair Ken Martin said Walz lifted Harris’ campaign and can’t be blamed for Harris’ loss.
“While we lost this race, there’s no doubt that Gov. Walz helped energize the ticket and bring voters into this coalition,” Martin said. “It would be really unfair to say that the reason that they lost this race was because of the addition of Gov. Walz, I think just the opposite.”
Larry Redmond, a Minnesota lobbyist who was a young political aide to the late Hubert Humphrey, agreed: “People do not vote for vice presidency of the United States.”
Walz now has some big decisions about his political future, having raised his national profile, albeit on a ticket that managed to lose to Trump, a twice-impeached convicted felon who sought to stay in office in 2020 despite losing the election.
If Walz were to run for governor and win a third term, he could become the first Minnesotan to win three, four-year terms. (Minnesota governors served two year terms until 1963.)
Martin said he wasn’t sure whether Walz wants to run again for governor in 2026, but he would be difficult to beat.
“He would immediately be the frontrunner in that race, regardless of which Republican decided to run against him,” Martin said. “He has a great record of accomplishments here in Minnesota.”
Then there’s the question of 2028.
Walz was a little known Midwestern governor just a few months ago, but after a 100-day sprint of national media appearances where he called Trump and J.D. Vance “weird,” massive rallies, rope lines and high-dollar fundraisers, Walz is likely on a list of potential Democratic presidential candidates.
He’s shown himself to be skilled at the retail campaigning that is a staple of early state presidential nominating contests. He’s a proven fundraiser with a newly fat rolodex. And he’s got a long list of legislative victories — paid family leave, codifying abortion rights, free college — that will excite the progressive base that tends to turn out in Democratic primaries.
Harris had hoped Walz’s rural background and Midwest demeanor and military, teaching and coaching resume would win over some working-class voters who have left the Democratic party in droves in recent decades, but instead Trump continued his dominance among these voters, adding more Black and Latino working-class voters to the fold.
Walz’s background received a thorough and at times damaging scouring from Republicans and the national press during the accelerated campaign, forcing him to acknowledge what he called “knucklehead” misstatements.
He once implied he had seen combat while in the National Guard when he had not; said he was in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square massacre when he wasn’t; claimed that “over 80% of (Minnesota) students missed less than 10 days of in-class learning” during the pandemic when he actually closed schools for months; and he repeatedly said he and his wife, Gwen Walz, used in vitro fertilization — which is under attack by some anti-abortion Republicans — to start his family when they actually used a different kind of fertility treatment.
Jeff Blodgett, a longtime Democratic-Farmer-Labor strategist who managed the campaigns of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone, said that in Walz, Americans got to see a new flavor: “Instead of a usual politician, he showed himself to be genuine and plain spoken, as well as knowledgeable on the issues and policies affecting people. His contribution to the ticket was nothing but positive, and the loss says more about our country than any one factor of the Harris-Walz campaign.”
In the immediate moment, Walz is due to serve another two years, and he’ll have to work with what appears to be a divided Legislature, as Republicans picked up three seats to create a 67-67 tie in the state House, pending two recounts.
Lawmakers will gather in January to craft a two-year budget, and Republicans are expected to drive a hard bargain to cram down spending and force tax cuts. A government shutdown looms if they can’t agree to a deal by June 30.
The reinvigorated opposition could actually help Walz, said Charlie Weaver, a former chief of staff to Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who had his own national ambitions dashed.
Divided government gives Walz a foil, while also allowing him to capture the center of the political debate.
First, though, Weaver said, Walz should take a break. “Take time to decompress. Get with your family. Take a vacation. Take a breath. Get perspective. Remember that most Minnesotans are proud of you. Republicans and Democrats. It’s been great having someone talking about Minnesota, and he’s done a good job.”
Next, he’ll need to reconnect with Minnesotans.
“Make sure Minnesotans know he’s serious about being governor,” Weaver said. “He’s back in the chair. People might say he has lost touch with Minnesota. He has to reestablish that he’s all-in.”
Redmond, who saw the late Walter Mondale suffer through the debilitating landslide of 1984, said Walz can expect the daggers to come out, as local adversaries will see an opportunity now that Walz is down.
“Ignore it and get back to business,” Redmond advised. “It sounds like cheap and simple advice, but what else are you going to do?”
